stratos | Breaking the Ice: A Pathway to Military Confidence-Building in the Arctic
To what extent could confidence- and security-building mechanisms aimed at reducing the risk of unintended escalation be applied to the High North? While the Arctic’s militarization and the ensuing security dilemma have received increased scholarly attention in recent years, there has been little scientific discussion on how this dilemma might be overcome or how the resulting risks of escalation might be mitigated. This article suggests that the West requires a long-term strategy that complements deterrence with reassurance and persuasion to enable Russia’s gradual return to cooperation. As trust grows over time, confidence- and security-building agreements inspired by existing treaties, such as the 2011 Vienna Document and the 2014 Eastern Asian Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, could be gradually concluded. Although it is challenging to advance confidence- and security-building measures in the current tense geopolitical situation, implementing a long-term, step-by-step strategy could be a starting point for breaking the ice.
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